Pinduoduo reported FY3Q22 revenue of Rmb35.50bn(+65% YoY) and non-GAAP operating revenue of Rmb12.30bn(+277% YoY). Meanwhile, it achieved non-GAAP net profit of Rmb12.45bn(+295% YoY), far exceeding our expectations.
  Heavy subsidies for agricultural products and faster penetration into branded merchants. By category, the company’s agricultural products, consumer electronics and beauty products are growing well, while branded merchant penetration continued to rise. As the only e-commerce platform to host the Golden Autumn Consumption Season of the Chinese Farmers’ Harvest Festival, Pinduoduo offered heavy subsidies to create the “Pinduoduo Harvest Pavilion”, with a large number of agricultural products recording 100k-plus orders. In FY3Q22, advertising and marketing revenue reached Rmb 28.43bn(+58% YoY), mainly due to continued growth in GMV and merchant activity. In 3Q22, revenue contribution from advertising, commission and commodity sales stood at 80.1% (-3.4ppts YoY), 19.8% (+3.6ppts YoY) and 0.2% (-0.2ppts YoY), respectively.
  Greater profitability, increasing project investment and user engagement in the future. In FY3Q22, gross profit stood at Rmb28.09bn, with gross margin of 79% (+9.6ppts YoY). Total operating expenses reached Rmb17.65bn, accounting for 49.7% of revenue (-9.9ppts YoY). Non-GAAP selling expense ratio was 39.6% (-7ppts YoY), and the management and R&D expense ratios reached 2.6% and 7.6%, respectively. R&D expenses topped Rmb2.7bn (+11% YoY), mainly because the company increased its research reserves and capabilities in the agricultural sector. Overall, the company’s Non-GAAP net profit reached Rmb12.45bn (+295% YoY) in FY3Q22. The significant growth was mainly due to 1) delayed investment in some projects, and 2) enhanced user engagement to boost the revenue scale.
  Enhanced investment in agricultural digitalization and cross-border e-commerce. The company continued to cooperate with China Agricultural University and other universities, introducing new crop varieties to help farmers increase production. PDD’s platform allows new varieties to reach more users, which helped more than 1000 agricultural brands to increase sales. We expect the higher online penetration rate will expand the scale of the online agricultural product market and meanwhile bring synergies to Duo Duo Grocery. The firm’s cross-border e-commerce platform TEMU was launched in September, with the first stop in the US positioning at cost-effective products. We expect the firm to leverage its strong supply chain, operation experience and big data algorithm capacity to open new growth space for Chinese-made products abroad.
  Maintain BUY. Given Pinduoduo’s in-depth engagement in the agricultural product market, coupled with a higher proportion of branded merchants and a rising monetisation rate, we do not think the short-term new business investment will affect its profitability trend. We raise our 22E-24E gross profit margin from 72%/75%/76%, to 75%/77%/78%. We also raise the take rate assumption for online market services from 3.25%/3.13%/3.22% to 3.51%/3.47%/3.47%, also raising the take rate assumption for Commisions from 0.88%/1.09%/1.09% to 0.99%/1.20%/1.31%. We raise our net profit forecasts from Rmb30.4bn to Rmb38.4bn in 22E, from Rmb40.7bn to Rmb46.8bn in 23E, and from Rmb49.5bn to Rmb55.6bn in 24E. The stock is trading at 22x 22E PE ,18x 23E PE and 15x 24E. We maintain our BUY recommendation.
  Risks. Disappointing performance of Duo Duo Grocery; intensified competition.

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